Archive for October, 2009

Filthy Lucre, US edition

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Some time ago, I praised a book written by philosopher Joseph Heath, associate professor at the University of Toronto. The title of the Canadian edition of the book, released 30 April 2009, is Filthy Lucre: Economics for People Who Hate Capitalism. Its list price is $29.95 (discount price of $23.96 at Amazon.com).

The US edition will be released on 30 March 2010. It will sell for $22.00, and is offered by Amazon.com at a pre-publication price of $14.95. Both editions are hard cover, so the format does not justify a lower price for the US edition.

Why the eleven-month lag for publication of a US edition? Translation was not necessary, since both editions are in English. Or – perhaps translation was necessary. The cover jacket of the Canadian edition is green, that of the US edition is gold. But that is not the only difference. The subtitle of the US edition is “The Real Economics of Capitalism”, possibly because few US readers are thought to “hate capitalism”. Also, the publisher has added “Why Profit Isn’t All That Bad and a Free Market Isn’t All That Good” to the book’s front cover.

When the US edition is available, it will be interesting to see if its contents differ from the Canadian edition.

Perhaps there are cultural differences between English Canada and Anglo United States, at least in the eyes of publishers.

defending the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Jeremy Siegel, writing in the Wall Street Journal (“Efficient Market Theory and the Crisis”, 27 October 2009), argues that the EMH is alive and well and does not deserve the blame that has been heaped on it for the 2008 financial meltdown.

[I]s the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) really responsible for the current crisis? The answer is no. The EMH, originally put forth by Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago in the 1960s, states that the prices of securities reflect all known information that impacts their value. The hypothesis does not claim that the market price is always right. On the contrary, it implies that the prices in the market are mostly wrong, but at any given moment it is not at all easy to say whether they are too high or too low.

Regardless of how high asset prices climb, tomorrow they are as likely to rise still further as they are to fall. Asset prices, in other words, follow a random walk. There is no way to know if a bubble exists, at least not until it bursts. This is a testable implication of the EMH. How does it fare in the real world? Well, Professor Siegel in the same article makes this relevant observation:

From 2000 through 2006, national home prices rose by 88.7%, far more than the 17.5% gain in the consumer price index or the paltry 1% rise in median household income. Never before have home prices jumped that far ahead of prices and incomes.

This should have sent up red flags and cast doubts on using models that looked only at historical declines to judge future risk. But these flags were ignored as Wall Street was reaping large profits bundling and selling the securities ….

Ah! Housing prices from 2000 through 2006 did not follow a random walk. Red flags indicated a bubble, and probable collapse of inflated prices. These facts are not consistent with the theory. Similar evidence could be cited for other periods and for other assets, including stocks. I conclude that the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is a ‘zombie’, “an idea or allegation that is intellectually dead but can never permanently be put to rest”.

Mr Siegel is professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and author of Stocks for the Long Run, now in its 4th edition.

Thanks to Greg Mankiw for the pointer.

conglomerate banks return to ‘business as usual’

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

John Kay notes that there are people who believe that better regulation will prevent failures of financial institutions and protect taxpayers and consumers. “There are also”, he writes, “people who believe that pigs might fly. Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England has made enemies by pointing out that they will not.”

Their activities underwritten by implicit and explicit government guarantee, it is increasingly business as usual for conglomerate banks. The politicians they lobby sound increasingly like their mouthpieces, espousing the revisionist view that the crisis was caused by bad regulation. It was not: the crisis was caused by greedy and inept bank executives who failed to control activities they did not understand. While regulators may be at fault in not having acted sufficiently vigorously, the claim that they caused the crisis is as ludicrous as the claim that crime is caused by the indolence of the police.

The governor of the Bank of England is one of the few public officials to have grasped that the primary purpose of regulation is to protect the public, both as taxpayers and users of financial services, and not to promote the interests of the financial services industry.

John Kay, “‘Too big to fail’ is too dumb an idea to keep”, Financial Times, 28 October 2009.

the damaging power of mistaken ideas

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

The always-wise Martin Wolf explains why central banks must abandon two ideas they only recently embraced: the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and inflation targeting. He draws freely on a new book by Andrew Smithers titled Wall Street Revalued: Imperfect Markets and Inept Central Bankers (Wiley, July 2009).

The efficient market hypothesis, which has had a dominant role in financial economics, proposes that all relevant information is in the price. Prices will then move only in response to news. The movement of the market will be a “random walk”. Mr Smithers shows that this conclusion is empirically false: stock markets exhibit “negative serial correlation”. More simply, real returns from stock markets are likely to be lower, if they have recently been high, and vice versa. The right time to buy is not when markets have done well, but when they have done badly. “Markets rotate around fair value.” There is, Mr Smithers also shows, reason to believe this is true of other markets in real assets – including housing. ….

So what are the policy lessons? …. Mr Smithers suggests that policymakers should monitor the price of stocks, houses and liquidity. If one of these, and especially if all three, are flashing red central bankers should respond. He recommends measures that raise capital requirements of banks in the boom. I would also support measures that directly limit the leverage among borrowers, as asset prices soar, particularly house prices.

The era when central banks could target inflation and assume that what was happening in asset and credit markets was no concern of theirs is over. Not only can asset prices be valued; they have to be. …. Pure inflation targeting and a belief in efficient markets proved wrong. These beliefs must be abandoned.

Martin Wolf, “How mistaken ideas helped to bring the economy down”, Financial Times, 28 October 2009.

Andrew Smithers founded a London-based investment house (Smithers & Co) in 1989. Martin Wolf describes him as “a man with a deep understanding of economics and a lifetime’s experience of financial markets”.

opting out of health insurance

Monday, October 26th, 2009

Update: I overlooked an important fact. Dutch residents who opt out of insurance mandates are required to deposit only payroll taxes (income-related contributions) into a health savings account. They are not required to deposit also the amount that they would otherwise spend on basic health insurance (around 100 euros a month for an individual). Remember that health insurance premiums are community-based, and do not vary with health conditions or age. A healthy young person could opt out of the system, opt back in when (or if) she becomes unhealthy, and come out ahead financially. Even without a bequest motive, there is a strong incentive for young, healthy adults to select the self-insurance option. If the Dutch do not game the system in this way, it could be because they are principled, or because non-financial costs – regular church attendance! – are high. Or, the Wikipedia article could be wrong: perhaps Dutch authorities do require additional contributions to health savings accounts. I have searched in vain for more information on the ‘opt out’ option of the Netherlands. Readers, can you help? I am curious.

Tyler Cowen’s NYT column has provoked varied comments at his Marginal Revolution blog. I would like to share just one more thought that came to mind on reading the column. Professor Cowen does not like the idea of government forcing anyone to purchase health insurance. This is a key message of his column.

Right now, many Americans take the gamble of going without insurance, just as many of us take our chances with how much we drive or how little we exercise.

The paradox is this: Reform advocates start with anecdotes about the underprivileged who are uninsured, then turn around and propose something that would hurt at least some members of that group.

Tyler Cowen, “Economic View: How an Insurance Mandate Could Leave Many Worse Off”, New York Times, 25 October 2009.

The Netherlands, which has mandated purchase of insurance since 2006, has an interesting opt-out provision that I learned about from a Wikipedia article:

Specific minority groups in Dutch society, most notably certain branches of orthodox Calvinism and Evangelical christian groups, refuse to have insurance for religious reasons. To take care for these religious principled objections, the Dutch system provides a special opt-out clause. The amount of money for health care that would be paid by an employer in payroll taxes is in those cases not used for redistribution by the government, but instead, after request to the tax authorities, credited to a private health care savings account. The individual can draw from this account for paying medical bills, however if the account is depleted, one has to find the money elsewhere. If the person dies and the account still contains a sum, that sum will be included with the inheritance.

When a person with a private health savings account changes mind and want to get insurance, the tax authorities will release the remaining sum in the health account into the common risk pool.

The set of rules around the opt-out clauses have been designed in such way that people, who do not want to be insured, can opt-out but not engage in a free ride on the system.

“Healthcare in the Netherlands”, Wikipedia, accessed 26 October 2009.

The opt-out is limited to members of designated religions, which may not please libertarians, but it is interesting nonetheless. The payroll taxes (income-related contributions), by the way, are currently set at 7.2% of wages, up to a maximum of €2,248 per annum.

Anyone who opts for a health savings account can later choose the insurance option, yet the article asserts that the rules “have been designed in such way that people … can opt-out but not engage in a free ride on the system”. This is strictly true only if there is no bequest motive, no desire to leave an inheritance for children or grandchildren. After all, if a person enjoys good health and requires few health care services, he or she could build up a large savings account that can “be included with the inheritance”.

This provision could be described not unfairly as ‘smoke and mirrors’, since the opt-out is more apparent than real. Any uninsured Dutch resident who suffers a costly illness can always abandon the savings account and opt into government-mandated insurance. The only loss will be any accumulated savings, savings that would not exist had the person never opted out of the scheme in the first place.

Politically, though, ‘health savings accounts’ are appealing. They could make mandated insurance palatable to those who would otherwise object on religious or ideological grounds. US reformers might consider mandatory savings as an alternative to their proposed levy of a tax on the uninsured.

the problem with insurance mandates

Sunday, October 25th, 2009

An op-ed column in today’s New York Times is flawed, but not fatally, as  it does make the important-but-often-ignored point that income-linked subsidies are an implicit tax on the poor.

Americans seem to like the idea of broadening health insurance coverage, but they may not want to be forced to buy it.  …. To ease the burdens of the insurance mandate, the reform proposals call for varying levels of subsidy. …. [But this produces a problem that] economists call “implicit marginal tax rates.”

The fiscal reality is that not all income groups can receive equal subsidies; as a family earns more, its subsidy would probably decrease, eventually falling to zero. But then we are taking money away from the poor as they climb into higher income categories. This is a disincentive to earn more, and the strength of the disincentive increases with our initial generosity. ….

Congress could tweak the subsidies so they don’t phase out so quickly, but then we’re back to very high fiscal costs and subsidies for many families in the higher income classes. ….

If there is a problem with mandates, why do they seem to work in countries like Switzerland and the Netherlands? One answer is that … mandates … fare better in those nations because of their greater equality of incomes. In other words, it’s less of a stretch to offer poorer people coverage that is roughly comparable to that of the wealthy.

Tyler Cowen, “Economic View: How an Insurance Mandate Could Leave Many Worse Off”, New York Times, 25 October 2009.

George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen blogs at marginalrevolution.com.

Incomes may be more skewed in the US than in Europe, but this fact does not take us very far as an explanation for policy differences regarding health insurance mandates. The real reason mandates have worked in Switzerland (since 1996) and the Netherlands (since 2006) is the combined power of government regulation and government subsidies. Insurers in both countries are forced to offer the same basic, mandated policies to everyone at a flat rate, regardless of the person’s health status. Citizens of both countries are free to supplement their basic policies with additional insurance, and many do. There is neither compulsion nor subsidies for supplemental policies that cover such non-basic services as dental care or private hospital rooms.

In the Netherlands, basic insurance is financed 50% from payroll taxes, 5% from general government revenue and 45% from premiums paid directly by the insured. Premiums are not required for children under the age of 18, regardless of household income. In addition, about two-thirds of Dutch households receive income-tested “health care allowances” that subsidize the premiums they pay for basic insurance. Co-pays are not allowed, but coverage of the basic benefit package is subject to a 150 euros deductible each year.

In Switzerland, subsidies are less generous. Swiss citizens – even children, or rather parents on their behalf – purchase health insurance individually. Still, approximately a third of the population receives subsidies intended to keep the cost of premiums to a maximum of 8% to 10% of household income, depending on the canton. Insurers must offer basic policies with a minimum deductible of 300 CHF ($297) to a maximum of 2500 CHF ($2477). Most Swiss choose the lowest deductible, and very few the highest. Co-pays of 10% are allowed, but are capped at a 700 CHF ($694) out-of-pocket maximum each year.

Washington and Lee law professor Timothy Jost provides a useful summary of the health care systems of both countries in his undated essay, “The Experience of Switzerland and the Netherlands with Individual Health Insurance Mandates: A Model for the United States?”.

An important lesson from the experience of these two European countries is that government involvement in health insurance does not end with mandates. At the very least, subsidies are needed for premiums paid by those with low incomes. Tyler Cowen correctly points out that income-based subsidies (targeting) is an implicit tax on the income of the poor. For this reason, the US would be wise to avoid following the path of Switzerland and the Netherlands. It would be best to opt instead for a universal system, funded largely from general government revenue or – if preferred – from an earmarked tax, such as a national sales or value-added tax.

The US already has in place a system of income-tested subsidies for health care. Professor Cowen’s criticism of insurance subsidies applies equally to the existing Medicaid scheme.

breaking up is hard to do

Friday, October 23rd, 2009

In a column today, Martin Wolf continues where he left off in his Wednesday column, and supplies a missing conclusion.

Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, … this week … [proposed] break[ing] up the banks into “utilities” and “casinos” The former would be safe. The latter would live and die in the market.

Both Alistair Darling, the UK’s chancellor of the exchequer, and Gordon Brown, the prime minister, promptly slapped Mr King down, arguing that this division does not work: Northern Rock, a utility mortgage-lender, failed, while the collapse of Lehman Brothers, evidently a casino, led to the most expensive financial rescue yet. This, they argue, is a misdirected remedy: the distinction between utility and casino either cannot be drawn or, if it can, does not coincide with the distinction between what has to be safe and what need not be. …

Mr King raises the right issue. …. Yet I remain unpersuaded that the structural solution – the separation of utility from casino finance – is workable ….

Martin Wolf, “Why curbing finance is hard to do”, Financial Times, 23 October 2009.

Mr Wolf has convinced me. There is no reasonable way to prevent the financial sector from imposing pain on all of us. The cost of making finance perfectly safe is simply too high. The best we can hope for is to lessen the pain with sound regulatory policies.

reforming the financial system

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

Martin Wolf notes that the enormous sums poured into bank bailouts have worked. “[T]he financial sector’s survivors are thriving. Even bonuses are back.” Yet no-one, with the exception of the fortunate beneficiaries, is happy with this outcome. “Success feels like failure.”

Trying to make financial systems safer has made them more perilous. Today, as a result, neither market discipline nor regulation is effective. ….

Either we impose a credible threat of bankruptcy, or institutions we have to support are made safer, or, better, we have both of these. Open-ended insurance of weakly regulated institutions that take complex gambles is intolerable. We dare not return to business as usual. It is as simple – and brutal – as that.

Martin Wolf, “How to manage the gigantic financial cuckoo in our nest”, Financial Times, 21 October 2009.

One solution is to split financial institutions into “safe” and “unsafe” activities, with government insuring deposits in regulated “utility” banks and the market providing discipline for more exotic ventures. Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, recommended this course of action on Tuesday.

Martin Wolf has not reacted to Mr King’s proposal, but his newspaper today rejects the idea, suggesting instead that regulators impose higher capital requirements and that governments provide “a legal regime that automatically forces the creditors of troubled banks to swap their debt for equity”. Mr Wolf is associate editor and chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, so might have had some input into the editorial.

a call for the break-up of banks

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, yesterday called for banks to be split into utility companies (tightly regulated, with deposit insurance) and speculative ventures (unregulated, without insurance). This is an appeal for “narrow banking” or, less radically, “limited purpose banking”.

To paraphrase a great wartime leader, never in the field of financial endeavour has so much money been owed by so few to so many. And, one might add, so far with little real reform. ….

In other industries we separate those functions that are utility in nature – and are regulated – from those that can safely be left to the discipline of the market. [Our] … approach adapts those insights to the regulation of banking. ….

There are those who claim that such proposals are impractical. It is hard to see why. ….

The sheer creative imagination of the financial sector to think up new ways of taking risk will in the end, I believe, force us to confront the “too important to fail” question. The belief that appropriate regulation can ensure that speculative activities do not result in failures is a delusion.

Speech by Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, Edinburgh, 20 October 2009.

the overvalued euro

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

The euro is soaring, and not only against the US dollar. LSE economist Willem Buiter explains that the euro’s overvaluation is a direct result of excessively tight monetary policy, so can be corrected with loose monetary policy.

The euro has become a currency on steroids.  Its relentless nominal and real appreciation since the end of 2000 was briefly interrupted in the second half of 2008, but resumed with a vengeance during 2009. ….

It is time for the ECB [European Central Bank] to demonstrate that, despite all the evidence of recent years, it does not pursue an asymmetric, deflationist monetary agenda, but that it takes a violation of its price stability mandate in a downward direction equally seriously as a deviation in an upward direction.   If the ECB persists in acting in a willfully asymmetric manner, its cherished independence will be taken from it.  The letter of the Treaty will provide no protection against popular anger and political opportunism.

Willem Buiter, “Time for the ECB to get serious about the overvalued euro”, Maverecon, 18 October 2009.

This is a very informative post, with three helpful charts. Financial Times blogs (I think!) are ungated, unlike regular columns published in the print edition. Willem Buiter is former chief economist (2000-2005) of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.