Archive for July, 2010

oil spills and wind farms

Monday, July 19th, 2010

[T]he environmental threats that matter are the slow, continuous ones, not the telegenic sensations like oil spills. BP’s spill is known to have killed just over 1,300 birds so far. Just one wind farm, at Altamont Pass in California, was until recently known to kill perhaps 1,300 birds of prey every year. If BP really wants to kill birds, it should indeed go beyond petroleum and into wind, an industry that kills far more rare birds per joule of energy produced than oil does.

Matt Ridley, “Natural resilience”, The Rational Optimist, 19 July 2010.

Biologist Matt Ridley (1958-) is author of several works of popular science, most recently The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves (HarperCollins, 2010). He is a former science editor of The Economist.

stimulus vs austerity

Monday, July 19th, 2010

Over the next week some of the world’s leading policymakers and economists will be addressing in the FT the all-consuming contemporary economic debate: austerity versus stimulus. The writers, including Larry Summers, Jean-Claude Trichet and the FT’s Martin Wolf will argue whether cutting now risks suffocating the fragile recovery of the global economy.

This page allows you to see the highlights from each contribution and join the discussion in the comment box at the end of this page.

“The great austerity debate”, FT.com, 18 July 2010.

This debate begins with contributions from Martin Wolf and Larry Summers. Niall Ferguson and Brad DeLong are next in the series. Registration is required to access this page, and free registrants are allowed to view a maximum of ten articles each month. Subscribers to FT have full access to this debate. Below are highlights from the first two articles.

Here is Martin Wolf:

The interaction of high indebtedness with deflation could create a cumulative downward spiral. A Japanese-style “lost decade” threatens the developed world. That is particularly likely if everybody starts to tighten together. If anything, further loosening is needed: in the first quarter of 2010, the gross domestic product of every member of the group of seven leading high-income countries was still below its pre-crisis peak.

Readers must make up their own minds on the merits of the arguments this week. My own strong sympathies are with the postponers. But of one thing everybody agrees: this debate matters. We cannot be sure who is right. But we can be sure that if policy-makers get it wrong, the results may well be dire.

Martin Wolf, “Why the battle is joined over tightening”, Financial Times, 19 July 2010.

And now, Larry Summers:

Economic commentators are mired in an unhelpful dialectic between “jobs” and “deficits” that, despite its apparent simplicity, has obscured rather than clarified the policy choices ahead in the US, Europe and elsewhere.

Critics have complained that President Barack Obama’s continued commitment both to support recovery in the short term and to reduce deficits in the medium and long term constitutes a “mixed message”. In fact, it is the only sensible course in an economy facing the twin challenges of an immediate shortage of demand and a fiscal path in need of correction to become sustainable.

Lawrence Summers, “America’s sensible stance on recovery”, Financial Times, 19 July 2010.

immigration yesterday and today

Sunday, July 18th, 2010

Today, we are all either immigrants or the descendants of immigrants. This is especially true of countries like … Canada ….

There is no shortage of examples past and present that reflect the multi-ethnic make-up of the country. Most commentators seem to think that Canada has done a reasonable job of addressing these fault lines through compromise and negotiation. Individuals have contributed through common schooling and intermarriage so that second and third generation Canadians and their families are less tied to their roots.

One difference [with migration] today than say 20 years ago is that immigrants can come to Canada and more readily retain ties to their homelands. Transportation and communication costs have fallen making linkages easier to maintain. Allowance for dual citizenship has weakened the ties to any one country so that immigrants are invited to make their home in Canada but support a second home and ties abroad. Hong Kong Chinese came to Canada before the colony was returned to China in 1997, bought homes here, left their children to attend Canadian schools while the parents returned to carry on their businesses in Hong Kong.

Christopher Maule, “Migration – Then and Now”, 18 July 2010.

This is an interesting post, but I question whether migration has been affected significantly by a fall in transportation and communication costs over the past 20 years. Over the past 60 years, possibly. But surely not since 1990. Perhaps this is a typo. Or, the special case of Hong Kong – where migration was driven by much more than costs of travel and communication – may have been on Professor Maule’s  mind.

means-tests for pensions

Thursday, July 15th, 2010

Self-styled libertarian Scott Sumner is dismayed by two of three proposals put forward by House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (Republican, Ohio) to cut spending on contributory public pensions (known as “Social Security” in the USA).

Besides raising the retirement age for full Social Security benefits to 70 for people now 50 or younger, Mr. Boehner  suggested curbing benefit growth by tying cost-of-living increases to the consumer price index rather than growth in wages, and providing benefits only to those who need them.

Patrice Hill, “Both parties mull raising retirement age”, Washington Times, 13 July 2010.

On the first point, Sumner concedes “there are good arguments on both sides … , although it seems a bit unfair to make coal miners work until 70″. But Mr Boehner does not propose that anyone be forced to retire at age 70, only that full benefits be given only at that advanced age. Workers would presumably continue to have the option of retiring earlier. At present, workers in the US can retire as early as age 62, but benefits are reduced actuarially if they choose to retire before their official retirement age (currently age 66, moving gradually to age 67). Mr Boehner’s proposal to move the official retirement to age 70 amounts, in effect, to a reduction in pension benefits, regardless of one’s actual age of retirement.

On the second point, Sumner prefers to use wages rather than prices as an index for benefits, since “people judge how they are doing relative to their neighbors, not relative to those who lived 100 years ago in log cabins”. Good point. But I would add that although initial benefits are indexed to wages, the index currently becomes consumer prices once retirement benefits commence. This is not necessarily bad, since it does penalise early retirement.

But it is the third point that “really bugs” Scott Sumner. It bugs me as well.

This is penny wise and pound foolish policy-making.  We are already getting all sorts of subtle and not-so-subtle increases in marginal tax rates (MTRs), why would the Republicans want to raise the implicit MTR on people who save for retirement?

Scott Sumner, “With Republicans like these”, The Money Illusion, 14 July 2010.

Kudos to Scott Sumner for this post. I am thrilled whenever anyone publicises the fact that means-tests are a form of taxation. Republicans like Mr Boehner may not know it, but, when they advocate means-tests, they are actually advocating an increase in taxes. In the case of retirement benefits, these implicit taxes fall largely on the wealthy, discouraging them from saving for their own retirement. More often, the implicit taxes fall heaviest on the poor, discouraging them from working. It is ironic that Republicans want means-tests for pensions, which leads me to conclude that they know not what they do.

Scott Sumner teaches economics at Bentley University, a business school located in Waltham, Massachusetts.

Update: From a comment by “Don” at The Money Illusion: “The Republicans want to institute means-testing so they can start to claim that SS [Social Security] is really welfare and begin the process to dismantle it.”

Ah! The Republicans do have a logical plan. But what will they put in its place? Forced contributions to private accounts?

irresponsible borrowers (and lenders)

Thursday, July 15th, 2010

I was surprised to learn, from a Financial Times editorial, that UK lenders continue to process mortgages without bothering to verify applicants’ incomes. Not surprisingly, some borrowers have assumed more debt than they can reasonably handle. Is this another banking crisis waiting to happen?

Among the facts unearthed by the FSA [the UK’s Financial Services Authority] is how shockingly cavalier some mortgage lending has become. From 2007, about half of all mortgages were processed without verifying borrowers’ incomes. In the first quarter of 2010 the figure was still 43 per cent. Unsurprisingly, many borrowers have taken on more than they can bear: the FSA finds that 46 per cent cannot (or only barely) meet their living costs after mortgage payments were deducted from their incomes. ….

Irresponsible borrowers may seek bigger loans than a prudent bank would lend if it knew their true incomes. Conversely, unscrupulous lenders can lure gullible clients into unaffordable loans that bring hardship later – for example through arrears fees that the FSA finds are often too high and rightly wants to regulate more strictly.

The FT is sceptical of paternalistic policy, such as protecting borrowers against their own mistakes. But it is justified in a society where so many are financially illiterate. Some borrowers are born profligate; others have profligacy thrust upon them. Financial products, no less than food or pharmaceuticals, may need to come with health warnings.

“Unsafe as houses”, Financial Times, 14 July 2010.

Martin Wolf is not optimistic regarding the future of the West

Wednesday, July 14th, 2010

We already know that the [financial] earthquake of the past few years has damaged western economies, while leaving those of emerging countries, particularly Asia, standing. It has also destroyed western prestige. The west has dominated the world economically and intellectually for at least two centuries. That epoch is over. Hitherto, the rulers of emerging countries disliked the west’s pretensions, but respected its competence. This is true no longer. Never again will the west have the sole word. The rise of the Group of 20 leading economies reflects new realities of power and authority. ….

We can see two huge threats in front of us. The first is the failure to recognise the strength of the deflationary pressures. The danger that premature fiscal and monetary tightening will end up tipping the world economy back into recession is not small, even if the largest emerging countries should be well able to protect themselves. The second threat is failure to secure the medium-term structural shifts in fiscal positions, in management of the financial sector and in export-dependency that are needed if a sustained and healthy global recovery is to occur.

Martin Wolf, “Three years and new fault lines threaten”, Financial Times, 14 July 2010.

Martin’s column was inspired by Chicago economist Raghuram Rajan’s new book, Fault Lines (Princeton University Press, 2010). Raghuram Rajan (1963-), while Chief Economist at the IMF, provided early warning of the global financial crisis in a 2005 paper, “Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?”. His answer was “Yes!”.

Rajan’s publisher describes his new book with these words:

In Fault Lines, Rajan demonstrates how unequal access to education and health care in the United States puts us all in deeper financial peril, even as the economic choices of countries like Germany, Japan, and China place an undue burden on America to get its policies right. He outlines the hard choices we need to make to ensure a more stable world economy and restore lasting prosperity.

natural resources and economic theory

Tuesday, July 13th, 2010

Martin Wolf questions whether it makes sense for theorists to merge natural resources with manufactured capital. This has been the norm ever since neo-classical economics triumphed over classical economics, about a century ago.

In moving from classical to neo-classical economics — the dominant academic school today — economists expunged land — or natural resources [incorporating them into capital]. ….

Yet it would seem to me that this way of thinking by economists is no longer sensible, if it ever was. Land must again be treated as separate from labour and capital.

First, resource scarcity is an increasingly pressing issue. It shows up in concerns over pollution (including global warming), in the discussion of “peak oil” and so forth. The idea that diminishing returns will become a more significant factor in the next century than in the past two seems to me to be compelling, now that modern economic growth has spread across the globe. So we need to return to economic models that incorporate resources, as a matter of course.

Second, in a globalised economy, taxing labour and capital will become increasingly difficult. That leaves land. The Australian government is right to want to extract the full rental value of its mineral resources for the benefit of the Australian people. Similarly, the people of the UK should wish to extract the rental value of London for their own use. The benefits of infrastructure investments that make London more productive would automatically be recouped if land rents were heavily taxed. Meanwhile, the taxation of capital and land [labour!] could be reduced.

Martin Wolf, “Why were resources expunged from neo-classical economics?”, Martin Wolf’s Exchange, 12 July 2010.

Despite the unfortunate typo (“land” instead of “labour”), Martin provides a splendid introduction to an important topic. (The extract above is only a small part of this introduction.)

Martin Wolf’s Exchange is open to all readers, but you must open a free account with FT.com to post a comment.

Guantanamo Bay as a Charter City?

Monday, July 12th, 2010

Journalist Sebastian Mallaby has written a lengthy profile of economist Paul Romer, focusing on Romer’s obsessive promotion of “Charter Cities”. Paul Romer has solid academic credentials. He ‘invented’ endogenous growth theory in the late 1980s after earning a BS in physics (1977) and a PhD in economics (1983), both from the University of Chicago. These portions of Mallaby’s article caught my eye.

Romer is not just arguing for enclaves; he is arguing for enclaves that are run by foreign governments. To Romer, the fact that Hong Kong was a colonial experiment, imposed upon a humiliated China by means of a treaty signed aboard a British warship, is not just an embarrassing detail. On the contrary, British rule was central to the city’s success in persuading capitalists of all stripes to flock to it. Romer sometimes illustrates this point by citing another Communist country: modern-day Cuba. Cuba’s rulers have tried to induce foreign corporations to set up shop in special export zones, and have been greeted with understandable caution. But if Raúl Castro convinced a foreign government—ideally a rich democracy such as Canada—to assume sovereignty over a start-up city in Cuba, the prospect of a mini Canada in the sun might attract a flood of investment.

It must have occurred to Castro, Romer says, that his island could do with its own version of Hong Kong; and perhaps that the Guantánamo Bay zone, over which Cuba has already ceded sovereignty to the United States, would be a good place to build one. “Castro goes to the prime minister of Canada and says, ‘Look, the Yankees have a terrible PR problem. They want to get out. Why don’t you, Canada, take over? Run a special administrative zone. Allow a new city to be built up there,’” Romer muses, channeling a statesmanlike version of Raúl Castro that Cuba-watchers might not recognize. “Some of my citizens will move into that city,” Romer-as-Castro continues. “Others will hold back. But this will be the gateway that will connect the modern economy and the modern world to my country.” ….

Throughout our conversations, Romer maintained a steady confidence that poor countries will eventually welcome charter cities. ….

But the largest obstacle Romer faces, by his own admission, still remains: he has to find countries willing to play the role of Britain in Hong Kong. …. How would a rich government contend with the shantytowns that might spring up around the borders of a charter city? Would it deport the inhabitants, and be accused of human-rights abuses? Or tolerate them and allow its oasis to be overrun with people who don’t respect its city charter? And what would the foreign trustee do if its host tried to nullify the lease? Would it defend its development experiment with an expeditionary army, as Margaret Thatcher defended the Falklands? A top official at one of Europe’s aid agencies told me, “Since we are responsible for our remaining overseas territories, I can tell you there is much grief in running these things. I would be surprised if Romer gets any takers.”

Sebastian Mallaby, “The Politically Incorrect Guide to Ending Poverty”, The Atlantic, July/August 2010.

For more on Charter Cities, visit http://www.chartercities.org.

HT David Warsh.

Keynes vs Hayek

Sunday, July 11th, 2010

In October of 1932, in the midst of the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes, A.C. Pigou, and other Cambridge and Oxford economists published an invited letter in The Times, in which they advocated public spending on all manner of projects in order to put people to work.

[I]in present conditions, private economy does not transfer from consumption to investment part of an unchanged national real income. On the contrary, it cuts down the national income by nearly as much as it cuts down consumption. Instead of enabling labour-power, machine-power and shipping-power, to be turned to a different and more important use, it throws them into idleness.

Moreover, what is true of individuals acting singly is equally true of groups of individuals acting through local authorities. If the citizens of a town wish, to build a swimming-bath or a library, or a museum, they will not, by refraining from doing this, promote a wider national interest. They will be “martyrs by mistake,” and, in their martyrdom, will be injuring others as well as themselves. Through their misdirected good will the mounting wave of unemployment will be lifted still higher.”

J.M. Keynes, A.C. Pigou and others,“Private Spending”, The Times (London), 17 October 1932, p. 13.

Two days later, Friedrich Hayek and his colleagues at the London School of Economics responded, urging fiscal restraint.

We are of the opinion that many of the troubles of the world at the present time are due to imprudent borrowing and spending on the part of the public authorities.  We do not desire to see a renewal of such practices.  At best they mortgage the Budgets of the future, and they tend to drive up the rate of interest — a process which is surely particularly undesirable at this juncture, when the revival of the supply of capital to private industry is an admitted urgent necessity.  The depression has abundantly shown that the existence of public debt on a large scale imposes frictions and obstacles to readjustment very much greater than the frictions and obstacles imposed by the existence of private debt.  Hence we cannot agree with the signatories of the letter that this is a time for new municipal swimming baths, etc., merely because people “feel they want” such amenities.

F.A. Hayek, Lionel Robbins and others, “Spending and Saving”, letter to the editor, The Times (London), 19 October 1932, p. 10.

The letter from Hayek and friends could have been written today, by a deficit hawk. As NYU economist Mario Rizzo puts it, “the great debate is still Keynes versus Hayek. All else is footnote.”

HT: Mario Rizzo, via P. Krugman

Yemen, the next Afghanistan?

Sunday, July 11th, 2010

This cover story, from today’s New York Times Magazine, is frightening.

Al Qaeda has a clear Yemen strategy. On Jan. 23, 2009, the group released a high-quality video clip on the Internet showing four men sitting on a floor, with a clean white curtain and a flag behind them. One of them was Nasser al-Wuhayshi, the group’s leader, wearing a white turban, and one was Qassim al-Raymi, its military commander, clad in fatigues and a red-and-white kaffiyeh. Sitting alongside them were two new Qaeda commanders, both former detainees from the American prison camp at Guantánamo Bay.

The video was a setback for President Obama, who had been inaugurated days earlier and had made a high-profile pledge to close Guantánamo – where nearly half the remaining inmates were Yemenis – within a year. But the real news was Al Qaeda’s announcement that same month that it was merging its Saudi and Yemeni branches into a single unit: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The new group incorporated a number of fighters from Saudi Arabia, where the government had cracked down fiercely on terrorist networks. It proclaimed a broad ambition: to serve as a base for attacks throughout the region and to replace the infidel governments of Yemen and Saudi Arabia with a single theocratic state.

Robert F. Worth, “Is Yemen the Next Afghanistan?”, New York Times Sunday Magazine, 11 July 2010.