Archive for September, 2010

China fact of the day

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

Chinese economic growth is fueled by investment:

[B]etween 1997 and 2009, gross investment rose from 32 per cent to 46 per cent of GDP, while household consumption fell from 45 per cent of GDP to a mere 36 per cent. This must be the lowest share of consumption in any significant economy ever. In a country with hundreds of millions of poor people, it is even shocking.

Martin Wolf, “Wen is right to worry about China’s growth”, Financial Times, 22 September 2010.

Is it possible for this sacrifice to continue? Martin Wolf (and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao) think not.

incentives matter

Friday, September 17th, 2010

Britain’s out-of-work disability benefits have been abused. …. But many of the 2.2m people who still claim the old benefit elected to do so because it is more generous than the dole.

The [UK] government … aims to improve the mechanisms for levering the unemployed back into work, and this includes the use of incentives. The problem here is that many benefits are most generous for the poorest. They are then means-tested away as claimants return to work and earn more. So some Britons keep only pennies out of every extra pound they earn. Indeed, some make little more in work than they would if they were unemployed.

Withdrawing benefits more slowly as recipients earn more requires the government to pump in more money or to make benefits less generous. But only the latter course looks feasible. George Osborne, chancellor of the exchequer, said this week that the welfare budget would have to come down by “several billions” …. Savings on disability benefit will not bridge that gap. Reducing the income of some of Britain’s poorest citizens, meanwhile, would be politically hazardous.

“Sickness vs health”, Financial Times editorial, 17 September 2010.

A means test is equivalent to a tax on income and savings. In many countries, not just the UK, the unemployed poor face taxes of 100% or more on wages. I am surprised that any of the poor choose to work at all.

a brief absence

Monday, September 13th, 2010

Dear friends of TdJ: blogging will be non-existent or light for the next ten days due to social commitments.

vanity sizing

Saturday, September 11th, 2010

Esquire blogger Abram Sauer “bought a tailor’s measuring tape, and trudged from shop to shop, trying on various brands’ casual dress pants”. What he found may surprise you.

The pants manufacturers are trying to flatter us. And this flattery works: Alfani’s 36-inch “Garrett” pant was 38.5 inches, just like the Calvin Klein “Dylan” pants — which I loved and purchased. ….

However, the temple for waisted male self-esteem is Old Navy, where I easily slid into a size 34 pair of the brand’s Dress Pant. Where no other 34s had been hospitable, Old Navy’s fit snugly. The final measurement? Five inches larger than the label. You can eat all the slow-churn ice cream and brats you want, and still consider yourself slender in these. ….

[M]ost men only know their waist size by their pants — so if those pants are up to five inches smaller than the reality, some men may be wrongly dismissing health dangers.

But vanity waist sizing is so entrenched, it couldn’t possibly be changed overnight, at least not without a government mandate.

Abram Sauer, “Are Your Pants Lying to You? An Investigation”, The Style Blog, 7 September 2010.

HT: The Browser

Lomborg on climate change

Friday, September 10th, 2010

Climate change skeptic Bjørn Lomborg writes that reports of a major shift in his thinking are premature.

There is no longer any mainstream disagreement about the reality of global warming. The crucial questions concern the economics of our response. But this debate can be just as heated. Ever since I published The Skeptical Environmentalist in 2001, I have always acknowledged that man-made global warming is real. Yet activists have repeatedly labeled me a “climate-change denier.” This is not because I have ever suggested that the basic science of global warming is wrong. Rather, it reflects anger and frustration over my insistence on pointing out that drastic carbon cuts make no sense. ….

The Copenhagen Consensus Center – a think tank where I serve as director – recently asked a large group of top climate economists to explore the costs and benefits of different responses to global warming. At the same time, we convened a second, equally stellar group of economists, including three Nobel laureates, to examine all of the research and rank the proposals in order of desirability. ….

The publication of Smart Solutions to Climate Change [Cambridge University Press] has generated considerable interest, including some from activists who believe that my enthusiastic support of its proposals represents a major shift in my thinking. In fact, I have advocated R&D spending for years. What is new – and exciting – is that with the publication of this research, we may finally be starting a constructive discussion about how we really can respond intelligently to this challenge.

Bjørn Lomborg, “Smarter Thinking on Climate Change”, Project Syndicate, 10 September 2010.

Bjørn Lomborg (1965-) is author of The Skeptical Environmentalist (Cambridge University Press 2001). He is a political scientist (Ph.D. University of Copenhagen, 1994) who has lectured in statistics and is now Adjunct Professor at Copenhagen Business School.

gloomy forecast from a UK analyst

Thursday, September 9th, 2010

[E]ven if we do avoid full recession, slow growth in the developed world is quite likely because of the effects of financial deleveraging and the fiscal tightening. This would plausibly push up the unemployment rate.

With core inflation low in several countries, this increases the probability of outright deflation, which as Japan attests, could turn into a self-reinforcing downward spiral with lower demand, further falls in equity markets and even greater demand falls.

Sushil Wadhwani, “Japanese lessons on ill-timed fiscal tightening”, Financial Times, 9 September 2010.

Sushil Wadhwani has a PhD in economics (LSE) and is a former member of the UK Monetary Policy Committee. He now runs Wadhwani Asset Management.

science and religion

Wednesday, September 8th, 2010

Cambridge University philosopher Tim Crane notes that more people today turn to religion than to science. The widespread popularity of religion, he feels, is due not to ignorance or irrationality, but rather to “the kind of intellectual, emotional and practical appeal that religion has for people, which is a very different appeal from the kind of appeal that science has”.

Taken as hypotheses, religious claims do very badly: they are ad hoc, they are arbitrary, they rarely make predictions and when they do they almost never come true. Yet the striking fact is that it does not worry Christians when this happens. In the gospels Jesus predicts the end of the world and the coming of the kingdom of God. It does not worry believers that Jesus was wrong (even if it causes theologians to reinterpret what is meant by ‘the kingdom of God’). If Jesus was framing something like a scientific hypothesis, then it should worry them. Critics of religion might say that this just shows the manifest irrationality of religion. But what it suggests to me is that that something else is going on, other than hypothesis formation. ….

Tim Crane, “Mystery and Evidence”, NY Times Opinionator, 5 September 2010.

Claims in economics often do as badly as religious claims, for much the same reason: “they are ad hoc, they are arbitrary, they rarely make predictions and when they do they almost never come true”. Moreover, like religious claims, they can never be disproved. See my posts on “economics as faith“.

history and economics

Tuesday, September 7th, 2010

Historian and journalist Gideon Rachman argues that “the entire attempt to treat economics as a ‘science … defined by its ability to forecast the future’ is misconceived.” (His quote is from economist Joseph Stiglitz, who is searching for “a new paradigm” to replace the one that failed to forecast the current crisis.)

With the exception of a few deluded Marxists, historians know that their work cannot be used to predict the future. History can suggest lessons and parallels and provide wisdom – but what it cannot do is provide a sociological equivalent of the laws of physics. Yet this seems to be the aspiration of many economists, who notoriously suffer from “physics envy”. ….

[T]oday’s historians are far humbler about what they can hope to achieve than modern economists. Historians know that no big question is ever definitively settled. They know that every big and interesting topic will be revisited, revised and examined from new angles. Each generation will reinterpret the past and deliver its own verdict.

This way of looking at the world is less obviously useful to practical men, seeking to make decisions. But maybe it is time for an alternative to the brash certainties, peddled by those pseudo-scientists, otherwise known as economists.

Gideon Rachman, “Sweep economists off their throne”, Financial Times, 7 September 2010.

My own opinion differs from that of Mr Rachman. I agree that good economics requires knowledge of history, but good history – at least, good economic or financial history – cannot be written without knowledge of economics. History and economics are complements rather than substitutes. Study of economics might prevent historians from making outlandish statements about the causes of a particular war or financial crisis. Study of history might make economists more humble, free them from “P-envy” and allow them to accept graciously the fact that they cannot predict the future.

Economics is a science, but it is a science like evolutionary biology, not a science like physics. Evolutionary biologists cannot predict the future. Nor, for that matter, can meteorologists, at least not with any degree of accuracy. Yet no one argues that evolutionary biology and meteorology are not sciences.

Addendum:

Further to my post this morning, I am reminded of this quote from the famous obituary that Keynes wrote in 1924, on the death of Alfred Marshall:

The study of economics does not seem to require any specialised gifts of an unusually high order. Is it not, intellectually regarded, a very easy subject compared with the higher branches of philosophy and pure science? Yet good, or even competent, economists are the rarest of birds. An easy subject at which very few excel! The paradox finds its explanation perhaps, in that the master-economist must possess a rare combination of gifts. He must be mathematician, historian, statesman, philosopher- in some degree. He must understand symbols and speak in words. He must contemplate the particular in terms of the general, and touch abstract and concrete in the same flight of thought. He must study the present in the light of the past purposes of the future. No part of man’s nature or his institutions must lie entirely outside his regard. He must be purposeful and disinterested in a simultaneous mood; as aloof and incorruptible as an artist, yet sometimes as near the earth as a politician.

J.M. Keynes, “Alfred Marshall, 1842-1924″, The Economic Journal, Vol. 34, No. 135. (September 1924), pp. 321-322.

age pensions in the Ukraine

Sunday, September 5th, 2010

Ukraine recently increased its nearly universal, minimum pensions by 250%, to a level above the legal minimum wage, without any means or retirement testing. This eliminated pension-aged poverty, but allowed many elderly workers to stop working. The vast majority (88 percent) of pensioners currently receive a minimum pension, a reflection of low wages of the Soviet era. Economist Alexander Danzer, who teaches at Royal Holloway Colege (University of London), uses this “natural experiment” to measure the disincentive effects of pensions on work. PensionReforms discusses his findings, and provides a link to the full paper.

“As old-age pensions are neither means-tested nor conditioned on retirement, the rise in benefit levels will induce a pure income effect, which enables an individual to afford more leisure.” This implies that the pensions are not taxed as income, so would not place a worker in a higher tax bracket. The author finds measured “strong disincentive effects on the labor supply decision of elderly people”. More precisely, the threefold increase in the minimum pension leads to an increase of 37-47 percent in male retirees at age 60, and a 30-39 percent increase in female retirees at age 55. The author chooses to emphasise this finding, warning: “The policy goal to combat poverty via pension increases might become ineffective and fiscally extremely costly, when the pension aged withdraw their manpower from the labor market.”

PensionReforms notes that it is important to keep in mind that few workers in the Ukraine were retiring at the statutory age (55 for women and 60 for men) prior to pension reform, so the denominators of these 30-47 percent figures are not very large. The effect of the pension increase on the size of the labour force is much smaller, simply because the denominator is somewhat larger. In the words of the author “The overall effect of the pension increase can be expected to amount to roughly 413,000 persons or 2.4 percent of the pre-reform labor force.” Moreover, this reduction in the labour force was predominantly the result of the retirement of women and service sector workers with little education, so the effects on the economy would be even smaller. PensionReforms thinks that this seems to be a price worth paying to eliminate poverty in old age. That price would be lower still if the pension age were increased to, say, 65 years from the current 55/60 years.

“Retirement Responses to a Generous Pension Reform”, Pension Reforms, 30 August 2010.

universal age pensions and Taiwan

Saturday, September 4th, 2010

Two Taiwanese academics cite my work, but leave me scratching my head:

Rather than relying on the Bismarck model for basic old-age income security, we need to adopt the Beveridge principle of a uniform single rate. The National Pension protection should be extended to all people, forming the first tier of protection (Willmore, 2006; 2007). The low income living allowance for the elderly should be abolished and replaced with a pure means test. On the one hand, a means test will ensure that scarce resources are not misallocated to individuals and families with adequate resources of their own. On the other, it also will ensure that the truly needy receive sufficient support to prevent them from falling into poverty. All citizens are entitled to a basic level of old age income security, and the State needs to be the guarantor of this civil right.

Chih-lung Huang and Carl Shrsyung Chang, “Rethinking Old Age Income Security for All in Taiwan”, paper sponsored by the National Science Council (NSC 98-2410-H-214-019-MY2), 2010, p. 22.

The authors are concerned that the pension system in Taiwan fails to prevent poverty in old age. The current first tier pension (“low-income Old Age Allowance”) is means-tested. They want to abolish this, and replace it with ….. another means-tested age benefit, to be called “Supplementary old-age income”.

I don’t understand how this would change the system. In any case, what I advocate is movement to universal flat pensions, not movement to a “pure” means test. Professors Huang and Chang cite my publications, but not my ideas. Three British academics, in contrast, convey my message concisely and precisely:

Larry Willmore, of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, argues against means-testing pensions; rather, he supports giving smaller pensions to all the elderly instead of larger pensions to the poorest, on both political and practical grounds. First, such programs are politically attractive because they provide a guarantee of a basic income for all voters’ old age, and for that of their parents and friends. Starting with a modest universal pension, the pressure from voters is to increase the size of the pension, as has happened in New Zealand and Mauritius. “Means tests promise fiscal savings, but tightly targeted benefits lack political appeal, so a means-tested benefit runs the risk of becoming smaller and smaller relative to wages and per capita GDP,” Willmore warns. The second argument for avoiding means tests is that they send the wrong signals to workers. They discourage low-income workers from saving for their old age and from continuing to work, even on a part-time basis, beyond normal retirement age.

Joseph Hanlon, Armando Barrientos and David Hulme, Just Give Money to the Poor (Kumarian Press, Sterling, VA, USA, 2010), p. 107.

In Taiwan, the message seems to have been lost in translation.

To add to my confusion, the US Social Security Administration publication, Social Security Programs Throughout the World states: “The social  insurance system involves a flat-rate benefit for citizens under the national pension program and earnings-related benefits under the labor insurance program.” The national pension is financed in part from a flat-rate payroll tax, and provides a minimum benefit of NT$3,000 per month and a maximum benefit equal to 0.65% of the minimum wage multiplied by the number of years of contributions plus NT$3,000 or 1.3% of monthly insured amount multiplied by the number of years of contributions, whichever is greater. Benefits are indexed to the consumer price index (CPI). “Citizens age 65 and older who have been residents of Taiwan for more than 6 months a year for the last 3 years” are eligible for benefits. Contributions seem not to be required for eligibility, nor is there any mention of a means test, but those with a contribution history are eligible for a larger pension.

I learned more from a few pages of the SSA than I did from the 32-page paper of Professors Huang and Chang. But is the information correct? Does Taiwan have a universal minimum pension, or does it have a minimum pension tested against all income, and possibly against assets as well?

The minimum pension, in any event, seems much too low to lift anyone out of poverty. The minimum pension in 2008 was NT$3,000 a month, only 17% of the minimum monthly wage of NT$17,280.