Archive for October, 2010

the original ‘$5 a day’ traveler

Sunday, October 31st, 2010

Seth Kugel, “frugal traveler” for the New York Times, interviewed John Wilcock, who wrote “Mexico on $5 a Day,” “Greece on $5 a Day” and “Japan on $5 a Day” for Arthur Frommer in the 1960s.

Kugel: I assume that at 83, you travel a bit more luxuriously than you used to.

Wilcock: No, I still travel as cheaply as I can. I don’t look 83, I look about 60-something, and I’m actually pretty active still. I’m not really handicapped: my eyes are going a bit and my hearing’s going a bit, but otherwise I’m in pretty good shape and I live pretty much the way I always have. When I’m staying with somebody and they say “I’m sorry, we only have a couch,” I say “Listen, I’ve slept on billiard tables and in bathtubs.” I’d like to think I’m as adaptable as I always was.

Seth Kugel, “A Budget Travel Pioneer on a Time When $5 a Day Was Real (Frugal) Money”, Frugal Traveler, 26 October 2010.

Read the full interview. It is very interesting.

Wilcock’s autobiography, Manhattan Memories, was published earlier this year as a paperback by lulu.com. I had never heard of lulu.com, but the publication can be purchased at amazon.com. From Amazon’s “product description”, I learned (and shamelessly copy) the fact that he was born in in Sheffield, England, left school aged 16 to work on various newspapers in England, and then on Toronto periodicals before moving to New York City. There in 1955 he became one of the five founders of the Village Voice in which he and co-founder Norman Mailer wrote weekly columns.

Wilcock

Frank Rich on the Tea Party

Sunday, October 31st, 2010

What the Tea Party ostensibly wants most — less government spending and smaller federal deficits — is not remotely happening on the country club G.O.P.’s watch. The elites have no serious plans to cut anything except taxes and regulation of their favored industries. …

[Sarah] Palin, with [Rupert]  Murdoch and [Glenn] Beck at her back, waits in the wings to “take back America” not just from Obama but from the G.O.P. [Republican Party] country club elites now mocking her.

Frank Rich, “The Grand Old Plot Against the Tea Party”, New York Times, 31 October 2010.

John Kay on fairness

Sunday, October 31st, 2010

The interpretation of fairness is culturally specific but rarely does it correspond to measures of income inequality. The US, an individualistic society, tolerates a high degree of inequality by nourishing the illusion that any person can become president, robber baron or Wall Street titan. The French seem to interpret the fairness of a policy mainly by reference to the benefits accruing to themselves.

But for the British, the epitome of fairness is shared adversity, which is why they so readily queue and the National Health Service is the country’s best-loved institution.

John Kay, “How the British prefer to register displeasure”, Financial Times (ungated link), 27 October 2010.

An old joke from France comes to mind. How do you spot an Englishman in a crowded theatre? Answer: He is the one who apologizes when you step on his foot.

confessions of a central planner

Saturday, October 30th, 2010

Carleton University economist Nick Rowe is one of the most original and stimulating bloggers in economics today. Nonetheless, I rarely link to him, because his posts contain few – if any – ‘sound bites’. With Nick, it is necessary to read each post in its entirety, to fully understand the logic. The post that I highlight today is no exception, so I limit myself to copying and pasting the introduction. Go to the link to read the rest of the post. Don’t neglect the excellent comments, including responses from Nick.

“So Nick, how come a free-market economist like you is acting like a central planner?”

I heard that a lot when I was an associate dean. Sometimes it was said to tease me. Sometimes out of genuine annoyance.

I had my reply ready.

“There are three ways to allocate resources. The market is best; soviet central planning is second best; and the Hobbesian State of Nature is by far the worst. And right now I’m trying to drag you miserable lot out of the Hobbesian State of Nature into soviet central planning. Maybe later I will try to get something like a market going”.

The story out of Texas A&M has been doing the rounds of the blogosphere. Most seem to be against even reporting data on revenues and expenses of individual professors. God forbid actually using that data for anything.

The sarcastic response is too tempting: “You economics professors are all in favour of prices and markets for everybody else. But it would never work for economics professors, of course. Right.”

But what I really want to do is switch roles and play a part I never get to play. It’s now my turn to say: “You pointy-headed professors sitting in your offices don’t have a clue about how resources actually get allocated in the real world of the ivory tower. I actually know something about it, because unlike you I’ve got the practical experience of actually doing it. You useless theoreticians don’t have a clue. I see the big picture and you don’t. So shut up and listen while I tell you what really happens.”

That’s what I’m going to do here.

Nick Rowe, “Confessions of a central planner”, Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, 29 October 2010.

Nick’s post will be of interest to anyone who has ever taught or studied at a large university. It might even be of general interest. As one commentator – “Patrick” – said, “Large firms face similar problems. Within the firm resource allocation starts to look and awful lot like central planning.”

On further thought, I will cut and paste two paragraphs from the ‘heart’ of the post, because I enjoyed them so much. I warn you, though, that they might make little sense of of context. Read the whole thing.

The supply of seats is determined by the individual department. But the demand for seats is determined centrally, by Admissions. Admissions is ordered to bring in as many students as are needed to pay the profs’ salaries. But each individual prof and department wants to reduce the number of bums on seats in his course and his department.

The result is a classic case of chronic excess demand for seats. Just like in the old Soviet Union. Capitalist economies have chronic excess supply. Communist economies have chronic excess demand. My job as associate dean (because I made it my job) was to persuade, cajole, bribe, threaten, or bully departments into putting on enough seats for the bums that needed or wanted to sit in them. I was what the Russians used to call “the pusher”.

See. The post contains quite a lot of economics, but is written in a way that is anything but boring.

Bill Gates at lunch with the FT

Saturday, October 30th, 2010

Bill Gates is a wealthy man with famously modest tastes. Lunch is chowder and a cheeseburger, with fries and Diet Coke.

Bill Gates would still be the richest man in the world, if he didn’t keep giving his money away. Now, after donating $28bn to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation – which funds health, development and educational causes – he is down to his last $54bn. ….

The passion for science and technology that drove Microsoft forward is now being channelled into the search for medical advances. ….

But Gates is also worried about the environment, so I ask him if the rapid industrialisation of China is a recipe for environmental disaster. Again, his impulse is to look to technology for a solution: “Short of going to war over this issue, the best way would be to find innovative forms of energy generation”. He is excited by solar and nuclear energy, and mocks those who complain about rising Chinese energy use – “I mean, these Chinese are actually using as much energy per capita as the average in the world today, how dare they! How did that happen? The US uses four times the average and the Brits double. But now these Chinese are trying to use the average.” ….

I drink up my coffee and ask for the bill. As I produce my credit card, Gates looks slightly amused. “You sure you want to pay for this?” he says. “I got money.”

I don’t doubt it. But the rules are that the FT pays for lunch.

Gideon Rachman, “Lunch with the FT: Bill Gates”, Financial Times, 30 October 2010.

This is a relaxed and interesting interview. From it I learned that Gates’ 84-year old father, Bill senior, “is also an energetic philanthropist, and is currently campaigning for higher taxes on the rich in Washington State”.

Roubini on Obama

Friday, October 29th, 2010

NYU economist Nouriel Roubini, in his contribution to a week-long FT debate, criticizes Obama and his party for failure to address the problem of medium-term deficits. “The result”, he writes, “will soon be the worst of all worlds: neither short-term stimulus nor medium-term fiscal sustainability”.

What has been the fiscal performance of President Barack Obama? He inherited the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, as well as a budget deficit that – after much needed bail-outs and a series of reckless tax cuts – was already close to $1,000bn. His stimulus package, together with a backstop of the financial system, low rates and quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve, prevented another depression. Mr Obama also deserves credit that the US, alone among advanced economies, currently supports a “growth now”, rather than an “austerity now” path.

But this is but one half of the picture; we must also judge his first two years on his ability to anticipate what the economy will need tomorrow. Here the picture is much less positive. Given the likely path of fiscal policy after next Tuesday’s election – with the expiration of existing stimulus and transfer payments, and even with most of the 2001-03 tax cuts being kept – the US economy will soon experience serious fiscal drag just when it needs a further boost. ….

In an ideal world Mr Obama would also have been able to move towards reforming and reducing entitlement spending, with commitments to measures that could be phased in over the next few years, therefore avoiding short-term fiscal pain. He would also have committed to increase, gradually over the next few years, less distortionary taxes such as a VAT and a carbon tax. This would have reduced the fiscal deficit, and created a climate in which no investor would worry about additional stimulus.

Sadly, this has not happened. In fact the opposite will now take place.

Nouriel Roubini, “A presidency heading for a fiscal train wreck”, Financial Times, 29 October 2010.

Roubini’s views support those of Princeton economist Paul Krugman, who writes:

[W]e very much need active policies on the part of the federal government to get us out of our economic trap.

But we won’t get those policies if Republicans control the House. In fact, if they get their way, we’ll get the worst of both worlds: They’ll refuse to do anything to boost the economy now, claiming to be worried about the deficit, while simultaneously increasing long-run deficits with irresponsible tax cuts — cuts they have already announced won’t have to be offset with spending cuts.

Paul Krugman, “Divided We Fail”, New York Times, 29 October 2010.

A key difference between the two economists is that Roubini does not blame the Republicans for virtually everything. Roubini acknowledges that Obama “is limited by an unco-operative Republican party”, but adds that Democrats “have been unwilling to tackle long-term entitlement spending … and this means the US remains on an unsustainable fiscal course”.

“liberal gene” identified

Friday, October 29th, 2010

How much does heredity shape our destiny, even our political views?

Researchers have for the first time identified a gene that they say can influence political outlook.

Past studies had found that political views have a genetic component, but hadn’t pointed out actual genes involved. The new research from the University of California and Harvard University indicates that a variant of a gene called DRD4 makes people more likely to be liberal, if they also had many friends as tenenagers.

“‘Liberal gene’ identified”, World Science, 28 October 2010.

The research findings were published in the current issue of the Journal of Politics, which is available online. (Subscription might be is not required. I am able to access the journal from my work computer, but we most likely have a subscription.) Here is the abstract:

Scholars in many fields have long noted the importance of social context in the development of political ideology. Recent work suggests that political ideology also has a heritable component, but no specific gene variant or combination of variants associated with political ideology have so far been identified. Here, we hypothesize that individuals with a genetic predisposition toward seeking out new experiences will tend to be more liberal, but only if they are embedded in a social context that provides them with multiple points of view. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we test this hypothesis by investigating an association between self-reported political ideology and the 7R variant of the dopamine receptor D4 gene (DRD4), which has previously been associated with novelty seeking. Among those with DRD4-7R, we find that the number of friendships a person has in adolescence is significantly associated with liberal political ideology. Among those without the gene variant, there is no association. This is the first study to elaborate a specific gene-environment interaction that contributes to ideological self-identification, and it highlights the importance of incorporating both nature and nurture into the study of political preferences.

Jaime E. Settle, Christopher T. Dawes, Nicholas A. Christakis and James H. Fowler, “Friendships Moderate an Association between a Dopamine Gene Variant and Political Ideology”, Journal of Politics, October 2010.

Settle and Dawes are PhD candidates in political science at the University of California-San Diego. Christakis is a Professor of Health Care Policy and  Sociology at Harvard University. Fowler is a Professor of Genetics and Political Science at the University of California-San Diego.

Spain’s housing bust

Thursday, October 28th, 2010

QUOTATION OF THE DAY

“I will be working for the bank for the rest of my life. I will never own anything – not even a car.”

Manolo Marbán, of Toledo, Spain, who will owe $140,000 to a bank after foreclosure.

Spain’s tough  finance laws protect banks but leave debtors in misery. The quotation is from the New York Times, and it is not the worst case reported. Consider Jaime Abelardo, an immigrant from Ecuador who arrived in Barcelona in 1999 to work in a warehouse.

A few years later, he could afford to bring his family over and buy a tiny apartment. Or so he thought. But within two years, he was laid off. He blames himself for not having been more cautious. Still, he cannot get over the figures printed on the dog-eared papers he has received from the bank.

They say he now owes nearly 260,000 euros, almost $360,000, which includes about 77,000 euros to cover all court costs, including the bank’s, his lawyer said. He bought the apartment for less than that — about 220,000 euros, he thinks, though many aspects of the deal were never clear to him. His wife has left him. His unemployment payments are about to run out. He would like to go back to Ecuador with his four children, but he does not have enough money. “I’m thinking about shooting myself,” he said.  ….

And then there is the matter of guarantors. Bankers pressed many homeowners to find guarantors at the time they took out the mortgages or when they began to struggle to make payments. Mario Gozálvez, a truck driver, asked his 23-year-old daughter to act as a guarantor when he used the equity in his Barcelona apartment to buy a truck three years ago. At the time, she did not even have a job, and he thought of it as a silly formality. Now, she faces a lifetime of paying off his debts.

Suzanne Daley, “In Spain, Homes Are Taken but Debt Stays”, New York Times, 28 October 2010.

Obama’s economic policies

Wednesday, October 27th, 2010

The Financial Times has launched a week of debate, leading up to the US mid-term elections next Tuesday. Simon Schama and Martin Wolf, from the editorial staff of FT, kick off the series. Non-FT writers, including Nouriel Roubini and Robert Rubin, will join them in the days ahead.

First Mr Schama:

[I]f Mr Obama has not entirely lost his nose for strategy he will force the Republicans to say exactly where, beyond the discretionary spending that accounts for a modest proportion of government outlay, they are prepared to make the deep cuts that will reduce the deficit as steeply as they say they want. Since they refuse to contemplate reining in military spending, they will have to run on reduced entitlements. Hello voters in Michigan and Nevada: our platform is to cut or postpone the Social Security you have already paid for, we think it’s a wizard idea to abolish drug prescription benefits for seniors! Now there’s a way to poop the Tea Party overnight.

It was never going to be easy.  ….

[Obama] has had to deal with a quasi-religious conviction that tax cuts are the engines of growth rather than the makers of mega-deficits as any inspection of recent history will incontestably demonstrate. (Thanks Dubya for the $1.3 trillion deficit.) He is confronting a public that by a large majority believes he, not George W. Bush, created Tarp; that he is a Muslim not a Christian; that he is bent on turning America Marxist; that the jury is out on evolution; that global warming science is a hoax; and that Woodrow Wilson (don’t even ask) was Beelzebub in a Princeton bow tie.

Simon Schama, “Time for the great orator to talk back”, Financial Times, 27 October 2010.

And now Martin Wolf:

By their nature, such [stimulus] policies work by sustaining demand and so output. Their impact on employment (and unemployment) is indirect. As it turned out, productivity growth was so strong that not too bad a performance, in terms of output, failed to prevent the surge in unemployment. One would have expected supporters of the free market to conclude that the US economy and, particularly, its labour market, remains flexible, under this “socialist” president. One would have expected them to conclude, too, that more stimulus was needed. After all, it was quite modest: fiscal stimulus was less than 6 per cent of GDP and so accounts for less than a fifth of the cumulative deficits of 2009, 2010 and 2011, while monetary policy is caught in a liquidity trap.

The truth is not that policy was foolhardy and failed, but that it was too timid and so could not succeed. A big mistake was the failure to address the labour market directly, perhaps by temporarily slashing payroll taxation. There were other mistakes, too: the effort to reduce the overhang of household debt should have been stronger.

Martin Wolf, “Why US voters are suing Dr Obama”, Financial Times, 27 October 2010.

Both essays are gated. I remind readers that free registration allows you to download 10 articles each month. FT subscribers can view and download articles without limit. Martin Wolf expands on some points in an ungated 6-minute podcast – “Charges US stimulus too big ‘absurd’” – that can be viewed here .

another call for fiscal stimulus

Tuesday, October 26th, 2010

Martin Feldstein, the conservative Harvard economist who chaired Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, agrees that fiscal stimulus is needed to keep the US economy from falling back into recession.

This recovery has been much weaker than previous ones ….

Because [this time] the downturn was not caused by high interest rates, lowering them could not lift the economy out of recession. The Obama administration therefore turned to fiscal policy – tax cuts and a range of spending programs. Unfortunately, the fiscal stimulus was not well enough designed to get the economy onto a strong, self-sustaining growth path. And, now that those stimulus programs are coming to an end, there is a danger that the economy will slide back into slow growth or even recession. ….

If the saving rate continues to rise at the same pace in the future as it has over the past three years, the overall GDP growth rate could turn negative after a few quarters. …. A significantly higher saving rate would help the US economy in the long run, but it would be a barrier to robust growth in the next few years.

Martin Feldstein, “Why Has America’s Economic Recovery Stalled?”, Project Syndicate, 25 October 2010.

HT to Mark Thoma.