speculation in oil markets

Politicians and pundits love to blame speculators for price volatility. The charge is almost never justified, definitely not in the case of oil.

It is sometimes suggested that academics have failed to adequately address the issue of speculation in oil markets and that more research is needed to establish what seems obvious to many policymakers. This is not the case. Rather, extensive research has produced a near-consensus among academic experts that speculation has not been a key driver of recent oil price fluctuations.

Lutz Kilian, “Speculation in oil markets? What have we learned?“, Vox EU, 21 April 2012.

University of Michigan economist Lutz Kilian has written widely on markets for crude oil.

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