charging for obesity

April 24th, 2012

I am writing this at an airport. A slight Asian woman has checked in with, I would guess, about 40 kilograms (88 pounds) of suitcases and boxes. She pays extra for exceeding the weight allowance. A man who must weigh at least 40 kilos more than she does, but whose baggage is under the limit, pays nothing. Yet, in terms of the airplane’s fuel consumption, it is all the same whether the extra weight is baggage or body fat. ….

[Why not] set a standard passenger weight, say, 75 kilos. If a passenger weighs 100 kilos, a surcharge would be charged to cover the extra fuel costs. For a passenger who is 25 kilos overweight, the surcharge on a Sydney-London return ticket would be $29. A passenger weighing just 50 kilos would get a discount of the same amount.

Another way to achieve the same objective would be to set a standard weight for passengers and luggage, and then ask people to get on the scales with their luggage. That would have the advantage of avoiding embarrassment for those who do not wish to reveal their weight.

Friends with whom I discuss this proposal often say that many obese people cannot help being overweight – they just have a different metabolism from the rest of us. But the point of a surcharge for extra weight is not to punish a sin, whether it is levied on baggage or on bodies. It is a way of recouping from you the true cost of flying you to your destination, rather than imposing it on your fellow passengers. Flying is different from, say, health care. It is not a human right.

Peter Singer, “Weigh More, Pay More“, Project Syndicate, 12 March 2012.

Peter Singer is Professor of Bioethics at Princeton University.

speculation in oil markets

April 23rd, 2012

Politicians and pundits love to blame speculators for price volatility. The charge is almost never justified, definitely not in the case of oil.

It is sometimes suggested that academics have failed to adequately address the issue of speculation in oil markets and that more research is needed to establish what seems obvious to many policymakers. This is not the case. Rather, extensive research has produced a near-consensus among academic experts that speculation has not been a key driver of recent oil price fluctuations.

Lutz Kilian, “Speculation in oil markets? What have we learned?“, Vox EU, 21 April 2012.

University of Michigan economist Lutz Kilian has written widely on markets for crude oil.

universal and other social pensions

April 22nd, 2012

Further to my Friday the 13th post – what is “universal pension”? – I have given further thought to the confusion surrounding universal and other social pensions, and drafted a taxonomy of social pensions that I hope might clarify things. To discuss pension issues, it is important that we speak a common language, or at least explain clearly what we mean by the terms we use. It is in this spirit that I offer this essay.

This is work in progress. Comments are very welcome.

Here is the introduction to (and summary of) the essay:

Non-contributory pensions, known popularly as “social pensions”, are a tool used by governments to ensure against – or at least alleviate – poverty of citizens and residents in old age. Social pensions differ from contributory pensions in that eligibility depends only on age, residence/citizenship and (possibly) need. The recipient of a social pension need not have worked for wages, and the amount of benefit does not vary with her earnings or contribution history. Benefits can vary for reasons unrelated to employment history: higher, for example, when a pensioner has dependents, lower when two pensioners are married and share accommodations, or much lower – often zero – due to government assessment of need.

This is my personal attempt to classify social pensions, with clear definitions. I intend to stick to these definitions in future writings. I can only impose rules on myself, but hope that others will find this taxonomy useful. Social pensions are equivalent to what the World Bank (2005) has come to refer to as a ‘zero pillar’. This differs from the World Bank’s broader (1994) pillar 1, which included all basic pensions, contributory as well as non-contributory.

I divide social pensions into four broad groups: Universal Pensions, Universal Minimum Pensions, Recoverable Social Pensions and Social Assistance Pensions. Universal Pensions are distributed to all residents (or citizens) who meet age and residency requirements, regardless of their income or wealth. Eligibility for other types of social pensions requires proof of need, in addition to proof of age and residence. A Universal Minimum Pension is perhaps the lightest test of need, promising full benefits for those with no other relevant pension income, and partial benefits for those with pension income that is less than the social pension. A Recoverable Social Pension is universal, in the sense that everyone who satisfies age and residence requirements is eligible to receive it, but it is income-tested through the tax system. Beneficiaries must include the social pension in their annual income tax returns, and are liable for a surcharge – higher than the normal rate for their tax bracket – up to the point where the full amount of the pension is recovered by tax authorities. Finally, Social Assistance Pensions require applicants to pass a means test, proving that they are poor enough to merit a non-contributory pension. It is useful, I believe, to divide this large group into two subgroups: those for which the test applies to the income (and/or wealth) of the individual or married couple (individual test) and those for which it applies to the income (and/or wealth) of the entire family or household (family test).

Continued here.

Vatican criticizes US nuns

April 21st, 2012

On Wednesday the Vatican announced a crackdown on US nuns long considered too liberal by the church hierarchy.

The Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, formerly known as the Office of the Inquisition, issued a highly critical report that accused US nuns of engaging in “corporate dissent” and of ignoring, or worse, challenging the church’s teachings on abortion, homosexuality and an all-male priesthood.

[...]

“I’ve no idea what they’re talking about,” Sister Simone Campbell, head of Network, a Catholic social justice lobby, told the BBC.

“Our role is to live the gospel with those who live on the margins of society. That’s all we do.”

Jane Little, “Leader of ‘radical’ US nuns rejects Vatican criticism“, BBC News, 21 April 2012.

The accused nuns are members of the Leadership Conference of Women Religious, which represents 80% of the 57,000 Roman Catholic nuns working in the United States. What touched off this investigation was the Leadership Conference’s support of Obama’s Affordable Care Act, in defiance of US bishops, who opposed the legislation. The report criticised the nuns for challenging their bishops, “the church’s authentic teachers of faith and morals”.

The Vatican named the Archbishop of Seattle, Peter Sartain, to head a reform of the nuns’ leadership, which “will be for a period of up to five years, as deemed necessary”. Sister Simone Campbell warns: “It’s totally a top-down process and I don’t think the bishops have any idea of what they’re in for.”

At the link, there is a four-minute podcast of Sister Campbell’s conversation with the BBC.

India’s “right to work” scheme

April 19th, 2012

A 12-year old scheme is supposed to guarantee full employment for unskilled workers in rural India. Four World Bank researchers evaluate its performance, and find it wanting.

In 2006, India embarked on an ambitious attempt to fight rural poverty. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Act of 2005 created a justiciable “right to work” for all households in rural India through the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, renamed the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) in 2009. This promises 100 days of work per year to all rural households whose adults are willing to do unskilled manual labor at the statutory minimum wage notified for the program. Work is to be made available to anyone who asks for it within 15 days of receiving an application to work, failing which the state government is liable to pay an unemployment allowance. ….

[So, how is the scheme working? We find that] actual participation rates in the scheme are not (as a rule) any higher in poorer states where it is needed the most. The reason for this paradox lies in the differences in the extent to which the employment guarantee is honored. The answer to the question posed in our title is clearly “no.”

Puja Dutta, Rinku Murgai, Martin Ravallion and Dominique P. Van de Walle, “Does India’s Employment Guarantee Scheme Guarantee Employment?“, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6003 (March 2012).

States are responsible for paying 100% of unemployment allowances, whereas the central government picks up 100% of the tab for wages, three-quarters of the non-wage component of MGNREGS projects, plus an additional 6% to defray administration costs.

How much, precisely, is the unemployment allowance? This is not reported, but can be found online. According to this site, “The rate of employment allowance shall be one forth [sic] of the wage rate for the  first thirty days and not less than one half of the wage rate for the remaining period.” That should encourage states to provide MGNREGS jobs for all who seek them. It doesn’t because governments are not following the spirit or the letter of the law. This reason “virtually no un-met demand for work on MGNREGS” is recorded is simply that “state and local governments have an incentive not to report un-met demand given that this implies they should pay unemployment allowances.” These same governments also have an incentive to see that local job-seekers are kept in the dark, ignorant of their legal rights.

on ‘pre-funding’ government expenditure

April 18th, 2012

‘Pre-funding’ the public pension obligation should give way to reducing debt. For the government’s accounts as a whole, having both financial assets and debt on the balance sheet is the same as borrowing to invest in financial markets. That is not something that governments are uniquely placed to undertake.

Pensions under Ageing Populations and the EU Stability and Growth Pact“, Pension Reforms, 18 April 2012.

From the review of a report with the same title, written by economists Roel Beetsma and Heikki Oksanen, and published in CESifo Economic Studies 54:4 (2008), pp. 563-592. An ungated version can be downloaded here.

The same principle applies to all government spending: health, education, defence, pensions, whatever. Beetsma and Oksanenit, for unknown reasons, do not apply it to pensions.

crony capitalists in the USA

April 18th, 2012

Luigi Zingales, a noted economist at the University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business, knows a thing or two about crony capitalism. The reason he emigrated to the US from his native Italy in 1988 was because he had had enough of living in a country where promotion was based on who you knew, not what you knew. ….

In the US he found a country that had built a system of capitalism that was the pre-eminent exemplar of the free-market ideal of economic liberty and open competition. He thrived on this meritocratic ethos. Yet now he is beginning to have his doubts, detecting hints in America of … crony capitalism ….

Zingales expresses an understandable nostalgia for the values of the American Revolution, which started as much as a protest against the corruption of the East India Company as a battle over taxation. And he produces a wonderful quote from Supreme Court justice Noah Swayne in 1875: “If any of the great corporations of the country were to hire adventurers who make market of themselves in this way, to procure the passage of a general law with a view to the promotion of their private interests, the moral sense of every right-minded man would instinctively denounce the employer and employed as steeped in corruption, and the employment as infamous.” Compare and contrast with the pygmies of today’s Supreme Court, who in 2010 made the landmark decision in Citizens United v Federal Election Commission that gave money unlimited power on the electoral process via super-Pacs. For some, this is fine because it is disclosed. Yet the fact of disclosure does not make the system of political finance any less corrupt.

Zingales’s fundamental diagnosis is right. Lobbying has run riot, capitalism has become pro-business instead of pro-market and cronyism is a real threat.

John Plender, “Nostalgia for the land of opportunity“, Financial Times, 16 April 2012.

FT columnist John Plender is reviewing A Capitalism for the People: Recapturing the Lost Genius of American Prosperity , by Luigi Zingales (Basic Books, 2012).

solidarity and the eurozone

April 18th, 2012

For each eurozone member, the principle of solidarity is paramount, but does not extend beyond national borders.

Remember these are the most generous welfare states in the world. Yet the provision of relatively modest cross-border financing, to help economies in difficulty, has proved extremely difficult. This is why the European Central Bank has de facto emerged as the principal cross-border financier.

Martin Wolf, “Why the eurozone may yet survive“, Financial Times, 18 April 2012.

Martin believes that the currency union will nonetheless survive, concluding:

Outsiders should not underestimate the strength of the will behind it.

The most likely outcome – though far from a certainty – is compromise between Germanic ideas and a messy European reality. The support for countries in difficulty will grow. German inflation will rise and its external surpluses fall. Adjustment will occur. The marriage will be far too miserable. But it can endure.

Martin Wolf’s blog

April 17th, 2012

FT columnist Martin Wolf has a blog that is worth visiting. He posts only once or twice a month, so I tend to overlook it, which is a pity, as it is very good. Here is an excerpt from a recent post:

The real interest rate on US and UK government debt is currently near to zero. This is a remarkable fact. True, real interest rates were negative in the 1970s. But it is extremely unlikely that anybody bought bonds expecting this to be the case.

Now, however, the position is quite different. Both of these governments sell index-linked debt that delivers zero real returns. That is a demonstration of the fact that the world has a huge “savings glut”. Indeed, since savings must equal investment at the global level, it is only by its price – the rate of interest – that one can assess whether such a glut exists.

To put the same point in another way, the massive fiscal deficits being run by the UK and US are not, on this evidence, crowding anybody out of the market. ….

It is the savings glut that delivers the negligible real returns savers now hate. What, after all, is the value of risk-free savings in a “savings glut” world? Zero.

When will we know that the world economy has recovered from the extraordinary conditions of today. My answer would be that this will be when the real rate of interest on safe securities (if any are indeed left by then) is around 3 per cent. Until that happens, policy is trying to stave off disaster.

Martin Wolf, “What is the real rate of interest telling us?”, Martin Wolf’s Exchange, 19 March 2012.

http://blogs.ft.com/martin-wolf-exchange/2012/03/19/what-is-the-real-rate-of-interest-telling-us/

Do read the entire post, which contains four colourful charts with historical data on interest rates, global imbalances, and house prices. It appears to be ungated, with no need for registration or subscription. There is an large archive of past posts, some of which you might find of interest. In “Can one have balance of payments crises in a currency union?” (16 February 2012), Martin begins by stating “The answer to this question is an unambiguous “yes”.” He then goes on to explain carefully the difference between a balance-of-payments crisis and a currency crisis, and much more as well.

ending the War on Drugs

April 16th, 2012

Heads of state and government of the Western Hemisphere, meeting at this year’s Summit of the Americas, have mandated the Organization of American States (OAS) to analyse and discuss drug policies. President Obama expressed US opposition to ending the four-decade old War on Drugs, but said that his government was willing to debate the issue. Mexican journalist Alma Guillermoprieto provides background on the Guatemalan president who is the force behind this initiative.

[Otto] Pérez Molina … campaigned for president promising to bring out the country’s dreaded Kaibil Army special forces against the drug trade; Guatemalan voters, judging crime and insecurity to be their greatest concern, elected him in November. But less than a month after taking office in January, Perez Molina asked his Central American colleagues to consider a unilateral cease fire and ways to legalize drugs.

The all-but-instant, and strikingly favorable response to Pérez Molina’s proposal has upended the agenda for this weekend’s Summit of the Americas in Cartagena …. Unimpeachable allies of the United States, like Costa Rican president Laura Chinchilla, and Colombia’s Juan Manuel Santos, who is the meeting’s host, have expressed their support for legalization. And, as is not infrequently the case in matters concerning Washington’s home hemisphere, the US has been caught unaware.

It shouldn’t have been. Despite billions of enforcement dollars spent by Washington, the overall amount of drugs being trafficked worldwide has remained more or less constant over the last forty years. Profits are higher. …. The trade’s ability to insinuate itself into every branch of government in drug-afflicted countries continues apace. …. It’s a sorry record.

In fairness, the Guatemalan president’s announcement surprised just about everyone outside his immediate circle. Otto Pérez Molina is a retired brigadier general who was in charge of one of the most brutalized areas during the most nightmarish years of an anti-guerrilla war that tore his country apart throughout the 1980s. He has been repeatedly accused of large scale human rights violations committed during that time. He is a wealthy man who won the presidency with the fervent support of Guatemala’s highly conservative, if not reactionary, private sector. He is, in other words, Nixon in China: the least likely, and therefore the best candidate to call for an end to the drug war that the real Richard Nixon declared in 1973.

Alma Guillermoprieto, “An End to the War on Drugs?“, NYR Blog, 12 April 2012.

Alma Guillermoprieto (born 1949) is author of numerous books, including Dancing with Cuba (Pantheon Books, 2004), a memoir of the year she lived in Cuba. Cuba, in case you are wondering, was not invited to Cartagena.