Posts Tagged ‘China’

ageing in Hong Kong, New York and London

Sunday, May 12th, 2013

While searching for information on pensioners in Hong Kong, I came across an online publication drafted by a team of four researchers: two from Hong Kong and two from New York City. They compare problems of ageing in three cities: Hong Kong, New York and London. The cities are similar in size (7 to 8 million) and each has about one million older residents (aged 65 years and above), but they differ in important ways, especially in financial security and access to health care.

Two items in the report caught my attention. First, the number of elderly living in poverty (based on household rather than individual income) seems far greater in Hong Kong than in London or New York. Second, access to health care is best in London (because of National Health Service) and poorest in New York (because of large co-pays). Here are relevant excerpts. The full report can be downloaded at the link below. (more…)

HK employers resist universal pensions

Friday, May 10th, 2013

Professor Nelson Chow last month warned that Hong Kong employers are resisting the universal age pension “in the same way they opposed the minimum wage a few years ago”. His observation is disturbingly correct. An op-ed column published in yesterday’s newspaper provides a striking example:

Here we go again. Some legislators have sought to hijack the governance of Hong Kong by demanding a quick fix to retirement protection through the introduction of a universal pension. If only the solution were that easy and made financial sense.

Not so. The challenges of retirement protection are far more complex and today’s decisions have to be paid for by future generations for many decades to come. ….

Other countries may still be preoccupied with trying to maintain universal state pensions. We do not carry that historical baggage and have the opportunity to tailor-make sustainable long-term solutions to the real needs of our own particular ageing society. Our government is right to take time in thinking this through carefully. Populist band-aids are not a solution – they are a threat.

Michael Somerville, “Universal pension won’t meet needs of greying Hong Kong“, South China Morning Post, 9 May 2013.

The author seems unaware of the fact that elderly citizens enjoy universal access to flat pensions in only a few countries. Contributory schemes, in contrast, are mandated almost everywhere; these schemes are earnings-related, so costly, and often receive government guarantees and subsidies.

Michael Somerville is consultant to the Business and Professionals Federation of Hong Kong, a “strategic think tank” founded in 1990.

Might opposition from business interests explain why the “quick fix” of universal pensions is expected to take three years to implement in Hong Kong?

universal pensions for Hong Kong

Thursday, May 9th, 2013

The government of Hong Kong has at last agreed to demands for introduction of a universal age pension that is adequate to keep the elderly out of poverty. The Chief Secretary for Administration Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, who chairs the Commission on Poverty, has commissioned Nelson Chow Wing-sun, a respected academic, to draft an appropriate plan. Chow (born 1947) is professor of social work and social administration at the University of Hong Kong.

In an exclusive interview with China Daily, Chow unveils his proposal, calling for a HK$4,000 [US$515] monthly pension for people 65 and above. …. He will submit his proposal, together with those from other organizations, to the government at the end of 2013. ….

At present, the government offers the [universal HK$1090] Old Age Allowance (OAA) and [the means-tested HK$2200] Old Age Living Allowance (OALA). …. Elderly people with significant assets or savings may be ineligible for the OALA …. People in that situation must rely solely on the OAA but the payment of $1,100 is hardly enough to provide for basic necessities.

Even senior citizens with over HK$200,000 in savings are afraid to use up their savings, in case they need the money for medical or burial expenses – recognizing that the price of a columbarium niche alone is well over HK$100,000.

“I propose a monthly pension of HK$4,000 for all people reaching 65, regardless of whether they have assets, have had jobs before or how much they earn. This amount is reasonable because if this is ‘universal’, it cannot be too big.”

“Given that there are nearly 1 million elderly aged 65 or above, the annual expenditure will be HK$48 billion, with the government bearing half of it, while employers and employees each contribute [a payroll tax of] about 2 percent. As the government now pays about HK$23 billion on all types of welfare payments, it will not spend much more than now. It is a more financially viable proposal. And with the government making such clear and firm commitment, nobody can say the government is iron-hearted.”

And if this new pension is introduced, he explained, it will supersede other welfare payments and save a great deal of administrative work.

Chow believes the HK$4,000 can support the basic living for the elderly, while retirees who have the additional retirement benefits and personal savings will feel more at ease. Though HK$4,000 may be small for a person who earns HK$50,000 before retirement, it will be good for a worker who earns the minimum wage of about HK$8,000 per month.

Chow is using the age criteria as eligibility of this new pension to eliminate means tests and other administrative procedures. “Even (Hong Kong’ number one tycoon) Li Ka-shing is eligible,” he mused, “but it’s up to him to apply or not.” ….

He stresses that the universal pension is following on the winds of change. Employers are resisting in the same way they opposed the minimum wage a few years ago, but they cannot escape it. ….

Nelson Chow Wing-sun is the chair-professor of the Department of Social Work and Social Administration at the University of Hong Kong. A well-known and highly respected academic in the field of social work, he is hailed the ‘Godfather’ of social welfare in Hong Kong. Over the years, he has held a number of posts in public service …..

Joseph Li, “A proposal for a universal pension“, China Daily, 18 April 2013.

Professor Chow’s proposed pension is larger than the HK$3,000 demanded by the Alliance for Universal Pension, and will be given to every legal resident from the age of 65, regardless of their employment history. Since there is no test of income or assets, a pensioner can continue to work, on a full- or part-time basis, without danger of losing the benefit.

The fact that Chow has the full confidence of the Hong Kong government is encouraging. The professor believes that it will be possible to introduce a universal pension by the year 2015, or 2016 at the latest. This is good news for the elderly of Hong Kong.

Professor Nelson Chow

the Old Age Living Allowance begins in Hong Kong

Sunday, April 14th, 2013

Hong Kong seniors aged 65-69 with low incomes, and all elderly residents aged 70 and older currently receive a monthly Old Age Allowance of HK$1090 (US$140), commonly known as “fruit money”.

This month (April 2013) the government is rolling out a new, means-tested Old Age Living Allowance of HK$2200 per month for those aged 65 and older. For those who pass a means test, this allowance will replace the “fruit money” (HK$1090) or disability allowance (HK$1400) they currently receive.

This is the first time that Hong Kong residents older than 70 have had to face a means test for state benefits.

Here are highlights (with links) from news reports of the South China Morning Post.

The HK$2,200 new, means-tested old age living allowance will be made available … starting from April, the government said on Thursday. …. The payments will be retroactive to December 1, last year. ….

A single-person applicant has to have a monthly income of less than HK$6,880 and a total asset of less than HK$193,000. The total monthly income for a married couple cannot exceed HK$10,940 and their total assets have to be less than HK$292,000.

Lai Ying-kit, “New means-tested old age allowance to start in April“, South China Morning Post, 31 January, 2013.

Alliance for Universal Pension members protest at Hong Kong Legislative Council. Photo: Felix Wong

Financial support from relatives will not be counted as part of an elderly person’s income, but will be considered assets when assessing his eligibility for a new government allowance ….

Gold teeth and jade jewellery would not be counted, the department said. It will review the asset and income limits annually. ….

Ng Wai-tung, of the non-profit Society for Community Organisation, said the scheme, meant to alleviate poverty, was taking the right direction generally, but looser asset limits were needed.

The government estimated that 400,000 people would benefit, but Ng doubted if the number would be that high, given such tight asset limits.

The added complication of what counted as assets might deter some needy residents, he said.

“[The elderly and their relatives] may also worry about breaking the law, and relatives may end up giving their elderly less money,” he said.

Jennifer Ngo, “Relatives’ cash for elderly to be treated as assets in allowance plan“, South China Morning Post, 1 February 2013.

 

Residents who are eligible for the new elderly allowance are delighted to get some help to cope with the higher cost of living, but others with just a little too much money in the bank are not happy with the government’s stringent means test.

For Chou Shui, 88, the new HK$2,200 handout is double the original HK$1,090 in “fruit money” he has been receiving. Chou will use it to pay the medical bills of his wife, 77, who has been bedridden since a stroke three years ago, he says. ….

But Leung Wei-chun, 80, who also spends most of her money on medical treatment, has failed the means test. Her savings exceeded the HK$193,000 assets cap by a little, she said.

“You’ve got to understand us old folks; we’re used to being frugal,” Leung said. “I can’t just use up that money quickly just so I can get [the allowance].” ….

[Leung] was widowed 40 years ago, has no children, and could not even find someone to accompany her to hospital.

Most of her HK$1,400 handicap subsidy goes to her doctor’s visits – including paying for someone to visit the hospital with her. Such a trip costs her HK$500 and six hours.

“If I could get an elderly allowance, it’d be poured into my medical needs anyway.

“I guess it doesn’t matter any more,” Leung said.

Jennifer Ngo and Jolie Ho, “Elderly allowance is welcome help for some, but others are not so lucky“, South China Morning Post, 30 March 2013.

Sumner on housing prices and migration

Tuesday, April 2nd, 2013

I don’t have all the answers [to Chinese housing prices] ….  But I … wonder how much of this analysis is filtered through our own experience with our own real estate “bubble.”  But then we didn’t have 500 million people ready to move from the countryside to our cities; indeed we only have 3 million farmers left. ….

(Actually we might have 500 million peasants wanting to move here–but they are not allowed into the country.)

Scott Sumner, “Spending 60 Minutes in China“, The Money Illusion, 26 March 2013.

Scott Sumner is commenting on a “60 Minutes” TV broadcast on Chinese ghost towns. He teaches economics at Bentley University in Waltham, Massachusetts.

filial impiety in China

Friday, March 8th, 2013

British journalist James Palmer, who lives in Beijing, writes about the conflict between old and young in China.

Older Chinese, especially those now in their fifties or sixties, often seem like immigrants in their own country. They have that same sense of disorientation, of struggling with societal norms and mores they don’t quite grasp, and of clinging to little alcoves of their own kind. In their relationships with their children, they remind me of the parents of the Indian and Bangladeshi kids I grew up with, struggling to advise their children about choices they never had to make. Yet for all the dissonance that geographical dislocation creates, the distance between a Bangladeshi village and a Manchester suburb is, if anything, smaller than that between rural China in the 1970s and modern Beijing. ….

[Chinese law backs a traditional of filial piety;] failing to support your elderly parents can get you a jail term, though this, like most Chinese laws that don’t directly benefit the government, is vanishingly rarely enforced. There was even an attempt to make visiting elderly parents mandatory.

These Confucian ideals have never matched reality. Chinese also has its share of idioms about filial impiety, like the description of a hypocrite as someone who ‘neglects his parents and gives them a rich funeral’. And indeed, the old are frequently abandoned or neglected. Next door, in prosperous South Korea, with the longest unbroken Confucian culture in the world, the elderly are poorer, more likely to still be working, and four times more likely to kill themselves than the already suicide-prone Korean young. The suicide rate among older Chinese lags just behind Korea’s, and has tripled in the past decade. But in Korea and China alike, disobedience to parents is theoretically held up as the worst of all possible sins.

James Palmer, “The balinghou“, Aeon Magazine, 7 March 2013.

The term “balingou” refers to Chinese born after 1980, who grew up after China’s opening and reforms began.

There is much more in this illustrated, 5,500 word essay. Mr Palmer is author of  The Death of Mao (Faber & Faber, 2012).

I came across this link on an FT.com blog, but am unable to locate it, so cannot give full credit for the pointer.

democracy and growth

Tuesday, February 26th, 2013

FT columnist Gideon Rachman last weekend read Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty, co-authored by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (Profile Books, 2012). The main thesis of the book is that western-style democracy is necessary for nations to achieve economic success. Mr Rachman points to the counter-example of China, which “appears to challenge the insistence of Messrs Acemoglu and Robinson that prosperity can be secured only by ‘inclusive’ economic institutions, rooted in political pluralism”.

I think that Why Nations Fail makes a strong case that, over the long term, there is a clear correlation between political freedom and economic success. But, in the US, a generalised attachment to liberty has somehow turned into an unquestioning veneration of the constitution that has become almost quasi-religious. ….

There is a similar problem in Europe, where the compulsion to pay homage to the European ideal stopped many politicians from asking hard, but necessary, questions ….

The Chinese system clearly has its own terrible flaws, including brutality and corrosive corruption. But it has also had the virtue of a radical pragmatism, captured in Deng Xiaoping’s maxim that “it doesn’t matter if a cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice”. ….

There are many reasons why nations can fail. The complacent worship of a dysfunctional political system could be one of them.

Gideon Rachman, “West complacent over why nations fail“, Financial Times, 26 February 2013.

support for universal pensions in Hong Kong

Friday, February 22nd, 2013

Non-governmental organisations and other grass-roots bodies turned out in large numbers yesterday for a Legislative Council meeting to show their support for a universal pension plan.

At the Legco welfare panel meeting, 72 groups and individuals – representing a range of organisations and people of different age groups and backgrounds – voiced their opinions ….

[One] attendee, a grandmother who said she was representing the non-profit Chinese Grey Power, said universal pension planning needed to start this year. “Why should the government waste time on things like the [means-tested] Old Age Living Allowance scheme, which cannot solve the problem? We need to unite and push for universal pension,” she said.

Jennifer Ngo, “Big turnout at Legco for welfare panel“, South China Morning Post, 20 February 2013.


 

happiness in China

Tuesday, February 19th, 2013

This is an important piece of research – carefully done, and well worth reading.

China’s life satisfaction in the last two decades has largely followed the trajectory of the central and eastern European transition countries – a decline followed by a recovery, with a nil or declining trend over the period as a whole. There is no evidence of a marked increase in life satisfaction in China of the magnitude that might have been expected due to the enormous four-fold improvement in levels of per capita consumption. In its transition China has shifted from one of the most egalitarian countries in the distribution of life satisfaction to one of the least. Life satisfaction has declined markedly among the lowest income and least educated segments of the population, while rising somewhat among the upper socio-economic stratum.

The similarity of China’s experience to that of the European transition countries and particularly to its role model under communism, the Soviet Union, lends credence to the results. …. The factors shaping China’s life satisfaction appear to be essentially the same as in the European transition countries – the emergence and rise of substantial unemployment, dissolution of the social safety net, and growing income inequality. The fact that China’s life satisfaction failed to increase despite its differing output experience – a rapid increase versus the collapse and recovery of output in the European countries – suggests that employment and the social safety net are of critical importance in determining life satisfaction.

The one piece of evidence that seemingly does not fit China’s life satisfaction pattern is the growth of output. How is it possible, one may reasonably ask, for life satisfaction not to improve in the face of such a marked advance from very low initial living levels? In answer, it is pertinent to note the growing evidence of the importance of relative income comparisons and rising material aspirations in China that tend to negate the effect of rising income. These findings are consistent with the view common in the happiness literature that the growth in aspirations induced by rising income undercuts the increase in life satisfaction due to rising income itself.

Richard A. Easterlin, Robson Morgan, Malgorzata Switek and Fei Wang, “China’s Life Satisfaction, 1990–2010“, IZA Discussion Paper No. 7196, January 2013, pp. 16-18.

The charts below are reproduced from p. 24 of this paper (WVS=World Values Survey).

happiness and economic growth

Saturday, February 16th, 2013

I must read these two papers co-authored and authored by University of Southern California economist Richard Easterlin. Here are the abstracts.

Despite its unprecedented growth in output per capita in the last two decades, China has essentially followed the life satisfaction trajectory of the central and eastern European transition countries – a U-shaped swing and a nil or declining trend. There is no evidence of an increase in life satisfaction of the magnitude that might have been expected to result from the fourfold improvement in the level of per capita consumption that has occurred. As in the European countries, in China the trend and U-shaped pattern appear to be related to a pronounced rise in unemployment followed by a mild decline, and an accompanying dissolution of the social safety net along with growing income inequality. The burden of worsening life satisfaction in China has fallen chiefly on the lowest socioeconomic groups. An initially highly egalitarian distribution of life satisfaction has been replaced by an increasingly unequal one, with decreasing life satisfaction in persons in the bottom third of the income distribution and increasing life satisfaction in those in the top third.

Richard A. Easterlin, Robson Morgan, Malgorzata Switek and others, “China’s Life Satisfaction, 1990–2010“, IZA Discussion Paper No. 7196, January 2013.

Long term trends in happiness and income are not related; short term fluctuations in happiness and income are positively associated. Evidence for this is found in time series data for developed countries, transition countries, and less developed countries, whether analyzed separately or pooled. Skeptics, who claim that the long term time series trend relationship is positive, are mistaking the short term association for the long term one, or are misguided by a statistical artifact. Some analysts assert that in less developed countries happiness and economic growth are positively related “up to some point,” beyond which the association tends to become nil, but time series data do not support this view. The most striking contradiction is China where, despite a fourfold multiplication in two decades in real GDP per capita from a low initial level, life satisfaction has not improved.

Richard A. Easterlin, “Happiness and Economic Growth: The Evidence“, IZA Discussion Paper No. 7187, January 2013.